Sunday, May 30, 2010

Big season for Bengals

I wonder what Cincinnati Bengals owner Mike Brown will do regarding Marvin Lewis.
Lewis is in the last year of his contract as head coach and there some clamoring for Brown to extend Lewis' contract now.
Brown should take the wait-and-see approach before deciding whether to keep Lewis or move on. It has nothing to do with the fact that the 2011 season may or may not happen. And my feelings have nothing to do with all the off-the-field things because a head-coach has very little control over his players when they leave the stadium.
Lewis, a defensive-minded coach, was hired to turn around the beleaguered franchise that was the punch line of many jokes during the 1990s and 2000s.
Has he done it? I don't think so.
Not yet at least.
Lewis' record heading into this season is a paltry 56-55-1. He has 2 division titles and two playoff losses, both in the wild card round, at home. Forget the "Carson Palmer Injury Game." Had Kimo von Oelhoffen not punked QB Carson Palmer early in the game, I really think the Bengals would have won.
But they didn't and life goes on.
Under Lewis, the Bengals have had 2 winning seasons and have finished third in the 4-team AFC North three times. Thank goodness for the Cleveland Browns, huh? Cincinnati is averaging 8 wins a season.
So under Lewis the Bengals typical season is mediocrity.

And he deserves an extension?
I'm a numbers type of guy so let's take a look deeper into the Bengals under Lewis. In 2003 only four teams gave up more points than Cincinnati. In 2004, 11 teams (out of 32) gave up more. The following season 10 teams surrendered more and in 2006 15 teams gave up more points. The last three seasons the Bengals had the 9th worst, 14th worst and 6th best in terms of points allowed. So except for last season, the Bengals have been middle of the road to near the bottom in points allowed.
Can't win games if you don't stop the other team.
And Lewis is a defensive guru?
The bottom line is this ..... are the Bengals in better shape now than when Lewis took over? I can't give an overwhelming yes.
Are they more competitive? Absolutely. Competitive has not translated into wins.
Cincinnati is still basically a .500 team and this long into a coach's tenure you would expect a positive trend. Since the 2005 division title, the Bengals won 8, 7 and 4 games before regrouping to win 10 last season.
So I come back to my original comment that this is a pivotal year for Cincinnati.
If they again win double-digits I would say give Marvin a couple more years, maybe a three-year deal with option years. If they regress it's time to move in a different direction and get a coach who can finish the job.

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