Tuesday, May 4, 2010

St. Louis sans Pujols?

I wonder how much money Albert Pujols is going to get. Probably somewhere in the $35 million a year range.
On Tuesday, ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd said the St. Louis Cardinals can't afford to pay Pujols that kind of money because there are only 8 Fortune 500 companies in St. Louis. And because of that the Cardinals can't raise ticket prices to cover Pujols' raise.
Blah, blah, blah, blah. Or should I say, blog, blog, blog, blog.
It's what Cowherd went on to say that totally blew my mind. First, let me backtrack a bit. It appeared the topic was going to be LeBron James and NBA Commissioners David Stern's, uh, stern opinion that James should stay in Cleveland.
Cowherd said Cleveland needs James. Without him, Cowherd said Cleveland would basically roll over and die. He didn't use those words but it's pretty much what he said.
Then Cowherd decided to talk about what sports teams/towns could afford to lose their superstar.
Cowherd said St. Louis would be "fine" if Pujols left. He said the Cardinals have (Skip) Schumaker, (Manager Tony) LaRussa, (Matt) Holliday, (Adam) Wainwright.
What in the name of Stan Musial is Cowherd thinking?
St. Louis would not be "fine" if Pujols left. Take Kobe off the Lakers and they are .500. Take LeBron off the Cavs and they are lucky to be .500. Take Peyton off the Colts and they win 6 games (only if they play the AFC Central that year). Take Pujols off the Cardinals? Gulp.
Cowherd said the Cardinals are one of the best-run organizations and there would be no worries if Pujols left. They could go out and sign a Jason Bay-type player. Bay is good. He's no Pujols. Nobody in MLB is Pujols. If they can't afford Pujols they couldn't afford anyone who could come close to doing what Pujols can do. The Kansas City Royals are still trying to replace George Brett and he was no Pujols.
It hurts my inner Cub to admit this but yes, the Cardinals are an incredibly run franchise. I can feel my Cubs tattoo melting as I type this.
But that doesn't mean they continue to rule the NL Central if Pujols ever left. Mark Cuban runs the Dallas Mavericks well. How many rings do they have?
It's not just a shrug-off situation where you can say "they will be fine" and move on to the next topic.
First, Matt Holliday would not see any pitches to hit. They would pitch around him worse than what pitchers did to Barry Bonds during his home run record pursuit. Holliday's walks would increase if he has patience but his strikeout count would probably double as he swings at bad pitches to make things happen.
Who else in that lineup scares you?
Not counting the game in progress as I write this, but the Cards have 3 regulars hitting over .300. And guess who is included in that group? Albert Pujols. Only two Cardinals have more than 5 homeruns. Guess who leads the way?
Schumaker, one of the "fine" players, is hitting .216 with 4 RBI.  Colby Rasmus is hitting .316 with 6 homeruns and 14 RBI. But he's struck out 27 teams, leads the team. The aforementioned Holliday is hitting a respectable .292 but he has just 4 homers and 11 RBI and 16 strikeouts. He has walked just 6 times.
Not exactly numbers that make me think the Cardinals can afford to lose Pujols.
Sure, someone will step up and suprise like David Freese, who is hitting .358 with 19 RBI.
From what I can tell, the Cardinals are built to have the other 7 position players fulfill their role and let Pujols work his magic. Someone different may step up each night and get on base or get a key hit. But guess who's there to tie it all together?
Pujols' career numbers are amazing. And given that he plays at least 150 games a year and doesn't get hurt, life without Pujols could be stressful.
My guess is that Chris Carpenter would not be 4-0, Wainwright would not be 4-1 and Brad Penny and Jaime Garcia would not be 3-1. None of them have an ERA over 2.85. None of them would probably have a higher ERA but I can easily see a bunch of 3-2 and 2-1 losses. Can you say run support?
I see them as an average team if they didn't have Pujols. Since Albert the Great made his debut in 2001, the Cards have failed to win 90 games just 4 times and one of those years they made the playoffs and won the World Series.
In the 11 years before Pujols, the Cards were .500 or better 4 times, went to the playoffs twice and never got past the NLCS.
The numbers don't lie.

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